Foreword
by Anne Heraty, Chairperson of the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs
On behalf of the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs, I am pleased to introduce this report titled Tomorrow’s Skills based on research undertaken at the request of Micheál Martin T.D., Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment to underpin the development of a National Skills Strategy.
To date, education and training policy has served Ireland well. It is one of the building blocks upon which Ireland’s economic success has been developed. Our ability to meet the skills needs of enterprise has been one of the cornerstones of our economic success to date. There is, however, no room for complacency. If we are to maintain our international competitiveness and ensure a continued high standard of living, then we must continue to develop the skills required to compete and prosper in the ever-changing modern economy.
In a rapidly changing environment, the changing skills needs of the economy and society are difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty, however, it is possible to identify trends which will assist us in making informed policy decisions. Those trends point to increasing demand for those with high level skills and a relative decline in demand for those with low level skills. They show a continuing shift towards the services and high value added manufacturing sectors. They point to increasing employment in managerial, professional, associate professional, personal and service and sales related occupational groups and an increasing emphasis on generic skills including basic skills such as literacy, numeracy and using technology.
In simple numerical terms, the Irish economy is likely to need 950,000 extra new workers between 2006 and 2020. This demand will be met through the young school leaving cohort, through increased participation and continuing to attract inward migration.
In absolute terms, the demand for skills at National Framework of Qualification levels 6 -10 will continue to grow strongly. However, in the absence of policy change, a significant proportion of Ireland’s workforce will remain low-skilled in 2020, with their highest level of educational attainment below upper secondary level. The result will be an under-supply of skills at the higher levels, and an over-supply of those at the lower levels. The skills requirement of the economy will be met only by re-skilling and upskilling the resident workforce and by attracting highly skilled migrants.
The Expert Group on Future Skills Needs proposes a vision of Ireland in 2020 in which a well-educated and highly skilled population contributes to a competitive, innovation-driven, knowledge-based, participative and inclusive economy.
In order to achieve this vision the Expert Group has identified a set of objectives which will assist Government in developing a National Skills Strategy. These objectives include achieving a significantly improved educational profile for the labour force, upskilling 500,000 people in employment, increasing the participation rate in upper secondary education to 90% and ensuring the progression rate to third level increases to 72%. Meeting these objectives represents a significant challenge and will require an integrated all-of-government approach led by Department of Enterprise, Trade & Employment and the Department of Education & Science.
A number of approaches are required to achieve these objectives. Firstly, we need to ensure that young people receive the maximum benefit from our formal education system. Secondly, we need to ensure that those within the workforce have opportunities to engage in learning. If met, these objectives will ensure Ireland’s continued competitive advantage in the areas of skills, education and training.
I would like to thank all those that contributed to the production of this report. Firstly, I would like to thank the Ministers for Enterprise, Trade & Employment and Education & Science and their officials for their cooperation, assistance and advice during the course of this study. I would like to express my gratitude to the members of the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs and the members of the sub-group who steered this study to conclusion. I would like to thank the team at Forfás and FÁS that provides secretariat and research support to the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs. Finally, I would like to thank Martin Shanahan, Forfás for leading this project to a successful conclusion.
Anne Heraty
Chairperson, Expert Group on Future Skills Needs