Chapter 4: Supply and Demand for Skills to 2020
Current Situation
The requirement to enhance the skill level of the working population presents a substantial challenge: Ireland’s participation rate in continuing learning is relatively poor. Only 14 percent of 25-64 year-olds in Ireland were engaged in non-formal education and training in 2002, compared with 16.5 percent in the EU25 and 34 .5 percent in the UK.
Ireland also ranks poorly in terms of adult literacy, but evidence suggests that literacy among young people has improved in recent years.
Significant gender imbalances are apparent across all strata of Irish education, training and employment.
No Policy Change Scenario
Based on EGFSN forecasts, and assuming no change in policy, the demand for labour will outstrip supply by more than 310,000 between now and 2020.
In relation to the supply of skills, the EGFSN estimates that, without policy change, in 2020 there will be:
- A continuing shortage at third-level degree and above;
- A significant deficit (approximately 139,000) at third-level certificate/ordinary degree; and
- Surpluses at lower educational levels, with a large number of low-skilled individuals unemployed or inactive.
Vision
The Expert Group proposes a vision of Ireland in 2020 in which a well-educated and highly skilled population contributes optimally to a competitive, innovation-driven, knowledge-based, participative and inclusive economy.
Specific Objectives
Realising this vision requires maximising the skills of the resident population through upskilling, increasing participation in the workforce, and continuing to attract highly skilled migrants. Specifically, the Expert Group proposes that, by 2020:
- 48 percent of the labour force should have qualifications at NFQ Levels 6 to 10;
- 45 percent should have qualifications at NFQ levels 4 and 5; and
- The remaining 7 percent will have qualifications at NFQ levels 1 to 3 but should aspire to achieve skills at higher levels.
